Welterweight
3 Rounds
Carlos Condit won · KO/TKO R3
UFC Event·Saturday, June 12, 2010·Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, Canada
Style matchupCarlos Condit: Elusive strikervsRory MacDonald: Elusive striker
Two technical strikers — likely goes the distance with a close decision.
Model Prediction: Rory MacDonald wins(55.9%)
Actual result: Carlos Condit wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Carlos Condit is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Rory MacDonald has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Rory MacDonald has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Carlos Condit
Red Corner
VS
Rory MacDonald
Blue Corner
+118
(46%)
Vegas Odds
-128
(56%)
42
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'0"
190.5 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Carlos Condit
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Apr 18L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 18W
vs Court McGee · Oct 20W
vs Matt Brown · Jan 21L
vs Max Griffin · Jul 21Rory MacDonaldL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Demian Maia · Feb 14W
vs Tyron Woodley · Jun 14W
KOvs Tarec Saffiedine · Oct 14L
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 15L
vs Stephen Thompson · Jun 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Carlos ConditMetricRory MacDonald
3.66
Strikes / min
3.75
2.67
Strikes absorbed / min
2.80
55%
Strike defense
62%
0.59
TDs / 15 min
1.77
38%
Takedown defense
88%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.99evenly matched on net striking+0.95
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Carlos ConditRory MacDonald
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Carlos Condit(10 fights)Rory MacDonald(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Carlos Condit
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights17
Rory MacDonald
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights12