Welterweight
5 Rounds
Carlos Condit won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, May 30, 2015·Goiania, Goias, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupCarlos Condit: Elusive strikervsThiago Alves: Well-rounded
The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.
Model Prediction: Thiago Alves wins(57.3%)
Actual result: Carlos Condit wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Thiago Alves has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Carlos Condit has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Carlos Condit
Red Corner
VS
Thiago Alves
Blue Corner
-350
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+290
(26%)
42
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
5'9"
190.5 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Carlos Condit
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Apr 18L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 18W
vs Court McGee · Oct 20W
vs Matt Brown · Jan 21L
vs Max Griffin · Jul 21Thiago AlvesL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Curtis Millender · Feb 18L
vs Aleksei Kunchenko · Sep 18W
vs Max Griffin · Feb 19L
vs Laureano Staropoli · May 19L
SUBvs Tim Means · Dec 19Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Carlos ConditMetricThiago Alves
3.66
Strikes / min
3.73
2.67
Strikes absorbed / min
3.42
55%
Strike defense
62%
0.59
TDs / 15 min
0.71
38%
Takedown defense
63%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.99evenly matched on net striking+0.31
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Carlos ConditThiago Alves
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Carlos Condit(10 fights)Thiago Alves(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+5.0-5.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+322.0-322.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.31.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Carlos Condit
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights17
Thiago Alves
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15