Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Carlos Felipe won · S-DEC
UFC Event·Saturday, January 16, 2021·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, United Arab Emirates
Style matchupCarlos Felipe: Pressure fightervsJustin Tafa: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Carlos Felipe wins(50.5%)
Actual result: Carlos Felipe wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Carlos Felipe has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Justin Tafa (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Carlos Felipe
Red Corner
VS
Justin Tafa
Blue Corner
-190
(66%)
Vegas Odds
+155
(39%)
31
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
6'0"
190.5 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Carlos Felipe
oldest →latest
L
vs Serghei Spivac · Jul 20W
vs Yorgan De Castro · Oct 20W
vs Jake Collier · Jun 21L
vs Andrei Arlovski · Oct 21Justin TafaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Harry Hunsucker · Dec 21W
KOvs Parker Porter · Feb 23W
KOvs Austen Lane · Sep 23L
vs Karl Williams · Mar 24L
KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Feb 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Carlos FelipeMetricJustin Tafa
4.88
Strikes / min
4.05
5.60
Strikes absorbed / min
5.11
50%
Strike defense
47%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.00
72%
Takedown defense
53%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.72evenly matched on net striking-1.06
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Carlos FelipeJustin Tafa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Carlos Felipe(5 fights)Justin Tafa(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-238.0238.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Carlos Felipe
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights5
Justin Tafa
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights9