Light Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Carlos Ulberg won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, September 27, 2025·Perth, Western Australia, Australia, Australia
Style matchupCarlos Ulberg: Pressure fightervsDominick Reyes: Striker
The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.
Model Prediction: Carlos Ulberg wins(62.8%)
Actual result: Carlos Ulberg wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Carlos Ulberg enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Dominick Reyes enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Carlos Ulberg is a KO finisher (56% of wins). Dominick Reyes has lost 80% of fights by KO.
- Stance matchup historically favors Dominick Reyes (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Carlos Ulberg
Red Corner
VS
Dominick Reyes
Blue Corner
-245
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+200
(33%)
35
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'4"
Height
6'4"
195.58 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Carlos UlbergW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Ihor Potieria · May 23W
SUBvs Da Woon Jung · Sep 23W
KOvs Alonzo Menifield · May 24W
vs Volkan Oezdemir · Nov 24W
vs Jan Blachowicz · Mar 25Dominick ReyesW3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Jiri Prochazka · May 21L
KOvs Ryan Spann · Nov 22W
KOvs Dustin Jacoby · Jun 24W
KOvs Anthony Smith · Dec 24W
KOvs Nikita Krylov · Apr 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Carlos UlbergMetricDominick Reyes
6.57
Strikes / min
4.99
4.03
Strikes absorbed / min
3.40
51%
Strike defense
49%
0.53
TDs / 15 min
0.25
85%
Takedown defense
82%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.54evenly matched on net striking+1.59
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Carlos UlbergDominick Reyes
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Carlos Ulberg(10 fights)Dominick Reyes(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+35.9-35.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+21.0-21.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Carlos Ulberg
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights10
Dominick Reyes
StanceSouthpaw
Height76.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights13