Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Carlos Vera won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, March 15, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Carlos Vera wins(53.8%)
Actual result: Carlos Vera wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Carlos Vera threatens submissions; Josias Musasa has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Carlos Vera has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Josias Musasa has 56pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Josias Musasa (53.5%).
- Josias Musasa has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Carlos Vera
Red Corner
VS
Josias Musasa
Blue Corner
+560
(15%)
Vegas Odds
-770
(89%)
38
Age
27
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'6"
Height
5'8"
175.26 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 1 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Carlos Vera
oldest →latest
L
vs Rinya Nakamura · Feb 24Josias Musasa
oldest →latest
L
vs Colby Thicknesse · Sep 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Carlos VeraMetricJosias Musasa
1.53
Strikes / min
3.19
2.79
Strikes absorbed / min
4.39
49%
Strike defense
36%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.90
25%
Takedown defense
81%
1.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.26evenly matched on net striking-1.20
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Carlos VeraJosias Musasa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Carlos Vera(2 fights)Josias Musasa(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-14.614.6
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.01.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.849.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-50.050.0
Carlos Vera
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights2
Josias Musasa
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights2