Women's Flyweight
3 Rounds
Casey O'Neill won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, March 28, 2026·Seattle, Washington, USA, USA
Style matchupCasey O'Neill: Pressure fightervsGabriella Fernandes: Striker
The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.
Model Prediction: Casey O'Neill wins(58.3%)
Actual result: Casey O'Neill wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Gabriella Fernandes enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Gabriella Fernandes (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Casey O'Neill
Red Corner
VS
Gabriella Fernandes
Blue Corner
-113
(53%)
Vegas Odds
-113
(53%)
28
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'6"
Height
5'6"
175.26 cm
Reach
167.64 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Casey O'Neill
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Antonina Shevchenko · Oct 21W
vs Roxanne Modafferi · Feb 22L
vs Jennifer Maia · Mar 23L
SUBvs Ariane da Silva · Dec 23W
vs Luana Santos · Aug 24Gabriella FernandesW3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Jasmine Jasudavicius · Feb 23L
vs Tereza Bleda · Jun 23W
vs Carli Judice · Jun 24W
SUBvs Wang Cong · Nov 24W
vs Julija Stoliarenko · Aug 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Casey O'NeillMetricGabriella Fernandes
7.89
Strikes / min
3.51
5.53
Strikes absorbed / min
5.31
57%
Strike defense
53%
1.40
TDs / 15 min
0.42
70%
Takedown defense
68%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.36Δ 4.16 — meaningful gap-1.80
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Casey O'NeillGabriella Fernandes
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Casey O'Neill(8 fights)Gabriella Fernandes(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+23.8-23.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+357.0-357.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
Casey O'Neill
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights8
Gabriella Fernandes
StanceSouthpaw
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights6