Women's Flyweight
3 Rounds
Casey O'Neill won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, June 19, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupCasey O'Neill: Pressure fightervsLara Procopio: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Casey O'Neill wins(56.3%)
Actual result: Casey O'Neill wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Casey O'Neill has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Casey O'Neill has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Casey O'Neill
Red Corner
VS
Lara Procopio
Blue Corner
+135
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-167
(63%)
28
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'4"
175.26 cm
Reach
170.18 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Casey O'NeillW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Roxanne Modafferi · Feb 22L
vs Jennifer Maia · Mar 23L
SUBvs Ariane da Silva · Dec 23W
vs Luana Santos · Aug 24W
KOvs Gabriella Fernandes · Mar 26Lara Procopio
oldest →latest
L
vs Karol Rosa · Aug 19W
vs Molly McCann · Feb 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Casey O'NeillMetricLara Procopio
7.89
Strikes / min
5.64
5.53
Strikes absorbed / min
6.50
57%
Strike defense
47%
1.40
TDs / 15 min
3.15
70%
Takedown defense
50%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.36Δ 3.22 — meaningful gap-0.86
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Casey O'NeillLara Procopio
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Casey O'Neill(8 fights)Lara Procopio(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+13.9-13.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-14.014.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+1.2-1.2
Casey O'Neill
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights8
Lara Procopio
StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights3