Middleweight
3 Rounds
Cezar Ferreira won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, November 9, 2013·Goiania, Goias, Brazil, Brazil
Model Prediction: Cezar Ferreira wins(50.8%)
Actual result: Cezar Ferreira wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Daniel Sarafian is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Cezar Ferreira has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Cezar Ferreira has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Cezar Ferreira (53.5%).
- Cezar Ferreira has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Cezar Ferreira
Red Corner
VS
Daniel Sarafian
Blue Corner
-165
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+155
(39%)
41
Age
43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'9"
198.12 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Cezar FerreiraL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Elias Theodorou · Feb 17W
vs Nate Marquardt · Nov 17W
SUBvs Karl Roberson · May 18L
vs Ian Heinisch · Nov 18L
vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 19Daniel Sarafian
oldest →latest
L
vs CB Dollaway · Jan 13W
SUBvs Eddie Mendez · Jun 13L
SUBvs Kiichi Kunimoto · Jun 14W
KOvs Antonio Dos Santos · Dec 14L
KOvs Oluwale Bamgbose · Feb 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Cezar FerreiraMetricDaniel Sarafian
1.90
Strikes / min
2.23
2.44
Strikes absorbed / min
3.10
53%
Strike defense
58%
2.69
TDs / 15 min
0.36
84%
Takedown defense
53%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.54evenly matched on net striking-0.87
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Cezar FerreiraDaniel Sarafian
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Cezar Ferreira(10 fights)Daniel Sarafian(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+35.0-35.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-56.056.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Cezar Ferreira
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights15
Daniel Sarafian
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights6