Middleweight
3 Rounds
Cezar Ferreira won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, May 12, 2018·Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Brazil
Model Prediction: Cezar Ferreira wins(52.3%)
Actual result: Cezar Ferreira wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Karl Roberson enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Cezar Ferreira has 44pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Cezar Ferreira has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Cezar Ferreira
Red Corner
VS
Karl Roberson
Blue Corner
-150
(60%)
Vegas Odds
+130
(43%)
41
Age
35
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
6'1"
198.12 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Cezar FerreiraL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Jack Hermansson · Nov 16L
vs Elias Theodorou · Feb 17W
vs Nate Marquardt · Nov 17L
vs Ian Heinisch · Nov 18L
vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 19Karl RobersonL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Roman Kopylov · Nov 19L
SUBvs Marvin Vettori · Jun 20L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Apr 21L
KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Mar 22L
KOvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Jul 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Cezar FerreiraMetricKarl Roberson
1.90
Strikes / min
2.57
2.44
Strikes absorbed / min
2.42
53%
Strike defense
57%
2.69
TDs / 15 min
0.72
84%
Takedown defense
40%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.54evenly matched on net striking+0.15
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Cezar FerreiraKarl Roberson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Cezar Ferreira(10 fights)Karl Roberson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+40.7-40.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.2-1.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Cezar Ferreira
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights15
Karl Roberson
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights10