Featherweight
3 Rounds
Chad Mendes won · KO/TKO R3
UFC Event·Saturday, August 31, 2013·Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA, USA
Style matchupChad Mendes: WrestlervsClay Guida: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Chad Mendes wins(79.3%)
Actual result: Chad Mendes wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Chad Mendes has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Clay Guida has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Chad Mendes
Red Corner
VS
Clay Guida
Blue Corner
-500
(83%)
Vegas Odds
+435
(19%)
41
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'7"
167.64 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Chad Mendes
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Ricardo Lamas · Apr 15L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 15L
KOvs Frankie Edgar · Dec 15W
KOvs Myles Jury · Jul 18L
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Dec 18Clay GuidaL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22W
vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22L
vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23L
vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23L
SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Chad MendesMetricClay Guida
2.78
Strikes / min
2.63
2.35
Strikes absorbed / min
3.00
67%
Strike defense
61%
4.13
TDs / 15 min
3.10
100%
Takedown defense
66%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.43evenly matched on net striking-0.37
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Chad MendesClay Guida
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Chad Mendes(10 fights)Clay Guida(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+19.6-19.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-84.084.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Chad Mendes
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights14
Clay Guida
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights27