Flyweight
3 Rounds
Rafael Estevam won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, November 18, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupCharles Johnson: Pressure fightervsRafael Estevam: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Rafael Estevam wins(52.5%)
Actual result: Rafael Estevam wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Charles Johnson has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Charles Johnson (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Charles Johnson
Red Corner
VS
Rafael Estevam
Blue Corner
+120
(45%)
Vegas Odds
-150
(60%)
35
Age
29
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'8"
177.8 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Charles Johnson
oldest →latest
W
vs Sumudaerji · Oct 24L
vs Ramazan Temirov · Mar 25W
KOvs Lone'er Kavanagh · Aug 25L
KOvs Alex Perez · Jan 26W
vs Bruno Silva · Mar 26Rafael EstevamW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Jesus Aguilar · Feb 25W
vs Felipe Bunes · Aug 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Charles JohnsonMetricRafael Estevam
4.77
Strikes / min
2.40
4.02
Strikes absorbed / min
3.90
55%
Strike defense
45%
0.51
TDs / 15 min
4.91
69%
Takedown defense
66%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.75Δ 2.25 — meaningful gap-1.50
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Charles JohnsonRafael Estevam
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Charles Johnson(10 fights)Rafael Estevam(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-15.415.4
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.549.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.849.8
Charles Johnson
StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights14
Rafael Estevam
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights4