Lightweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Charles Oliveira won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, December 11, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupCharles Oliveira: WrestlervsDustin Poirier: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Charles Oliveira wins(54.8%)
Actual result: Charles Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Charles Oliveira threatens submissions; Dustin Poirier has lost 44% of fights by sub.
- Stance matchup historically favors Dustin Poirier (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Charles Oliveira
Red Corner
VS
Dustin Poirier
Blue Corner
+110
(48%)
Vegas Odds
-130
(57%)
36
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
5'9"
187.96 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Charles OliveiraW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24W
vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25W
SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25W
vs Max Holloway · Mar 26Dustin PoirierL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23W
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24L
SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24L
vs Max Holloway · Jul 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Charles OliveiraMetricDustin Poirier
3.23
Strikes / min
5.24
3.05
Strikes absorbed / min
4.57
48%
Strike defense
52%
2.29
TDs / 15 min
1.15
54%
Takedown defense
64%
2.60
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.18evenly matched on net striking+0.67
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Charles OliveiraDustin Poirier
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Charles Oliveira(10 fights)Dustin Poirier(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-28.928.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+56.0-56.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.41.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Charles Oliveira
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights36
Dustin Poirier
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights31