Lightweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Islam Makhachev won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, October 22, 2022·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, United Arab Emirates
Style matchupCharles Oliveira: WrestlervsIslam Makhachev: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Islam Makhachev wins(60.0%)
Actual result: Islam Makhachev wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Islam Makhachev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Islam Makhachev threatens submissions; Charles Oliveira has lost 36% of fights by sub.
- Islam Makhachev has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Islam Makhachev has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Islam Makhachev (53.5%).
- Charles Oliveira has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Charles Oliveira
Red Corner
VS
Islam Makhachev
Blue Corner
+175
(36%)
Vegas Odds
-205
(67%)
36
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
5'10"
187.96 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Charles OliveiraW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24W
vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25W
SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25W
vs Max Holloway · Mar 26Islam MakhachevW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 23W
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Oct 23W
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Jun 24W
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Jan 25W
vs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Charles OliveiraMetricIslam Makhachev
3.23
Strikes / min
2.45
3.05
Strikes absorbed / min
1.45
48%
Strike defense
61%
2.29
TDs / 15 min
3.10
54%
Takedown defense
91%
2.60
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.18evenly matched on net striking+1.00
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Charles OliveiraIslam Makhachev
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Charles Oliveira(10 fights)Islam Makhachev(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+44.5-44.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-70.070.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Charles Oliveira
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights36
Islam Makhachev
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights18