Lightweight
5 Rounds
Charles Oliveira won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, May 7, 2022·Phoenix, Arizona, USA, USA
Style matchupCharles Oliveira: WrestlervsJustin Gaethje: Pressure fighter
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Charles Oliveira wins(59.9%)
Actual result: Charles Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Charles Oliveira threatens submissions; Justin Gaethje has lost 40% of fights by sub.
- Justin Gaethje has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Charles Oliveira has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Charles Oliveira
Red Corner
VS
Justin Gaethje
Blue Corner
-130
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+110
(48%)
36
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'11"
187.96 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Charles OliveiraW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24W
vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25W
SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25W
vs Max Holloway · Mar 26Justin GaethjeW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 23W
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 23L
KOvs Max Holloway · Apr 24W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 25W
vs Paddy Pimblett · Jan 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Charles OliveiraMetricJustin Gaethje
3.23
Strikes / min
6.48
3.05
Strikes absorbed / min
7.05
48%
Strike defense
51%
2.29
TDs / 15 min
0.33
54%
Takedown defense
74%
2.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.18evenly matched on net striking-0.57
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Charles OliveiraJustin Gaethje
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Charles Oliveira(10 fights)Justin Gaethje(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+107.7-107.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-35.035.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-2.02.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Charles Oliveira
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights36
Justin Gaethje
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15