Featherweight
3 Rounds
Charles Rosa won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, June 26, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Charles Rosa wins(58.1%)
Actual result: Charles Rosa wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Charles Rosa enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Justin Jaynes has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Charles Rosa has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Charles Rosa (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Charles Rosa
Red Corner
VS
Justin Jaynes
Blue Corner
-177
(64%)
Vegas Odds
+140
(42%)
39
Age
36
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'7"
175.26 cm
Reach
172.72 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Charles RosaL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Kevin Aguilar · Jun 20L
vs Darrick Minner · Feb 21L
vs Damon Jackson · Oct 21L
vs TJ Brown · Jan 22L
vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 22Justin JaynesL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Frank Camacho · Jun 20L
vs Gavin Tucker · Aug 20L
KOvs Gabriel Benitez · Dec 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Charles RosaMetricJustin Jaynes
3.08
Strikes / min
3.34
3.86
Strikes absorbed / min
5.33
47%
Strike defense
62%
1.67
TDs / 15 min
0.75
38%
Takedown defense
20%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.78Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap-1.99
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Charles RosaJustin Jaynes
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Charles Rosa(10 fights)Justin Jaynes(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+10.3-10.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-77.077.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
Charles Rosa
StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights13
Justin Jaynes
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights4