Lightweight
3 Rounds
Charles Rosa won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, June 13, 2020·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupCharles Rosa: Submission grapplervsKevin Aguilar: Striker
Striker must keep this standing. Grappler wins big if it hits the floor.
Model Prediction: Charles Rosa wins(64.0%)
Actual result: Charles Rosa wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Charles Rosa enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Kevin Aguilar enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Kevin Aguilar has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
- Stance matchup historically favors Charles Rosa (52.9%).
- Kevin Aguilar has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Charles Rosa
Red Corner
VS
Kevin Aguilar
Blue Corner
+170
(37%)
Vegas Odds
-185
(65%)
39
Age
37
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'7"
175.26 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Charles RosaL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Darrick Minner · Feb 21W
vs Justin Jaynes · Jun 21L
vs Damon Jackson · Oct 21L
vs TJ Brown · Jan 22L
vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 22Kevin AguilarL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Rick Glenn · Nov 18W
vs Enrique Barzola · Mar 19L
vs Dan Ige · Jun 19L
KOvs Zubaira Tukhugov · Feb 20L
vs Tucker Lutz · May 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Charles RosaMetricKevin Aguilar
3.08
Strikes / min
3.96
3.86
Strikes absorbed / min
4.81
47%
Strike defense
52%
1.67
TDs / 15 min
0.16
38%
Takedown defense
78%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.78evenly matched on net striking-0.85
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Charles RosaKevin Aguilar
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Charles Rosa(10 fights)Kevin Aguilar(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-12.212.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-77.077.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
Charles Rosa
StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights13
Kevin Aguilar
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights6