Featherweight
3 Rounds
Chas Skelly won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, August 23, 2014·Tulsa, Oklahoma, USA, USA
Style matchupChas Skelly: Submission grapplervsTom Niinimaki: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Chas Skelly wins(67.9%)
Actual result: Chas Skelly wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Tale of the Tape
Chas Skelly
Red Corner
VS
Tom Niinimaki
Blue Corner
+145
(41%)
Vegas Odds
-155
(61%)
41
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'9"
182.88 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Chas SkellyW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Feb 17L
KOvs Jason Knight · May 17L
vs Bobby Moffett · Nov 18W
vs Jordan Griffin · Sep 19W
KOvs Mark Striegl · Feb 22Tom NiinimakiL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Rani Yahya · Nov 13L
SUBvs Niklas Backstrom · May 14L
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Dec 14Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Chas SkellyMetricTom Niinimaki
2.01
Strikes / min
1.91
3.21
Strikes absorbed / min
2.31
49%
Strike defense
58%
1.74
TDs / 15 min
2.97
39%
Takedown defense
33%
2.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.20evenly matched on net striking-0.40
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Chas SkellyTom Niinimaki
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Chas Skelly(10 fights)Tom Niinimaki(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-17.117.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+42.0-42.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
Chas Skelly
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights12
Tom Niinimaki
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights4