Lightweight
3 Rounds
Lance Gibson Jr. won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, March 28, 2026·Seattle, Washington, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Chase Hooper wins(77.0%)
Actual result: Lance Gibson Jr. wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Lance Gibson Jr. is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Chase Hooper has lost 60% of fights by KO.
- Lance Gibson Jr. has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Lance Gibson Jr. has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Lance Gibson Jr. (54.1%).
Tale of the Tape
Chase Hooper
Red Corner
VS
Lance Gibson Jr.
Blue Corner
-280
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+210
(32%)
26
Age
31
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
6'1"
Height
5'9"
187.96 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Chase Hooper
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Jordan Leavitt · Nov 23W
SUBvs Viacheslav Borshchev · May 24W
SUBvs Clay Guida · Dec 24W
vs Jim Miller · Apr 25L
KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Aug 25Lance Gibson Jr.
oldest →latest
L
vs King Green · Dec 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Chase HooperMetricLance Gibson Jr.
4.50
Strikes / min
2.40
3.02
Strikes absorbed / min
4.24
39%
Strike defense
56%
2.43
TDs / 15 min
1.67
55%
Takedown defense
75%
2.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.48Δ 3.32 — meaningful gap-1.84
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Chase HooperLance Gibson Jr.
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Chase Hooper(10 fights)Lance Gibson Jr.(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+77.4-77.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+119.0-119.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.3-1.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Chase Hooper
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights13
Lance Gibson Jr.
StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights2