Flyweight
3 Rounds
Henry Cejudo won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 14, 2015·Dallas, Texas, USA, USA
Style matchupChris Cariaso: Well-roundedvsHenry Cejudo: Well-rounded
Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.
Model Prediction: Henry Cejudo wins(53.2%)
Actual result: Henry Cejudo wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Henry Cejudo enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Henry Cejudo has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Chris Cariaso (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Chris Cariaso
Red Corner
VS
Henry Cejudo
Blue Corner
+600
(14%)
Vegas Odds
-750
(88%)
44
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'3"
Height
5'4"
162.56 cm
Reach
162.56 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Chris CariasoL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Iliarde Santos · Oct 13W
vs Danny Martinez · Feb 14W
vs Louis Smolka · May 14L
SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Sep 14L
vs Sergio Pettis · Oct 15Henry CejudoL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Dominick Cruz · May 20L
vs Aljamain Sterling · May 23L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Feb 24L
vs Song Yadong · Feb 25L
vs Payton Talbott · Dec 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Chris CariasoMetricHenry Cejudo
3.35
Strikes / min
3.83
2.23
Strikes absorbed / min
3.84
61%
Strike defense
57%
1.11
TDs / 15 min
1.78
57%
Takedown defense
72%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.12Δ 1.13 — meaningful gap-0.01
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Chris CariasoHenry Cejudo
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Chris Cariaso(10 fights)Henry Cejudo(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+24.3-24.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+77.0-77.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+3.1-3.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Chris Cariaso
StanceSouthpaw
Height63.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights13
Henry Cejudo
StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights16