Flyweight
3 Rounds
John Moraga won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, December 29, 2012·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: John Moraga wins(50.5%)
Actual result: John Moraga wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Chris Cariaso enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Chris Cariaso (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Chris Cariaso
Red Corner
VS
John Moraga
Blue Corner
+130
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-140
(58%)
44
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'3"
Height
5'6"
162.56 cm
Reach
167.64 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Chris CariasoL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Danny Martinez · Feb 14W
vs Louis Smolka · May 14L
SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Sep 14L
vs Henry Cejudo · Mar 15L
vs Sergio Pettis · Oct 15John Moraga
oldest →latest
L
vs Sergio Pettis · Jan 17W
vs Ashkan Mokhtarian · Jun 17W
KOvs Magomed Bibulatov · Oct 17W
vs Wilson Reis · Apr 18L
KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 18Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Chris CariasoMetricJohn Moraga
3.35
Strikes / min
2.57
2.23
Strikes absorbed / min
2.55
61%
Strike defense
56%
1.11
TDs / 15 min
0.62
57%
Takedown defense
44%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.12Δ 1.10 — meaningful gap+0.02
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Chris CariasoJohn Moraga
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Chris Cariaso(10 fights)John Moraga(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+29.1-29.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+24.0-24.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+2.9-2.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Chris Cariaso
StanceSouthpaw
Height63.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights13
John Moraga
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights14