Flyweight
3 Rounds
Chris Cariaso won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Wednesday, July 11, 2012·San Jose, California, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Chris Cariaso wins(61.5%)
Actual result: Chris Cariaso wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Chris Cariaso enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Chris Cariaso has 29pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Chris Cariaso (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Chris Cariaso
Red Corner
VS
Josh Ferguson
Blue Corner
-355
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+295
(25%)
44
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'3"
Height
5'5"
162.56 cm
Reach
167.64 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Chris CariasoL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Danny Martinez · Feb 14W
vs Louis Smolka · May 14L
SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Sep 14L
vs Henry Cejudo · Mar 15L
vs Sergio Pettis · Oct 15Josh Ferguson
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Roland Delorme · Dec 11Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Chris CariasoMetricJosh Ferguson
3.35
Strikes / min
2.13
2.23
Strikes absorbed / min
4.18
61%
Strike defense
32%
1.11
TDs / 15 min
0.59
57%
Takedown defense
54%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.12Δ 3.17 — meaningful gap-2.05
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Chris CariasoJosh Ferguson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Chris Cariaso(10 fights)Josh Ferguson(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+47.3-47.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-84.084.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.6-1.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+2.8-2.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Chris Cariaso
StanceSouthpaw
Height63.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights13
Josh Ferguson
StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach—
Fights2