Flyweight
3 Rounds
Chris Cariaso won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, May 10, 2014·Cincinnati, Ohio, USA, USA
Style matchupChris Cariaso: Well-roundedvsLouis Smolka: Submission grappler
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Chris Cariaso wins(50.2%)
Actual result: Chris Cariaso wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Chris Cariaso enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Chris Cariaso has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Chris Cariaso (53.5%).
- Louis Smolka has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Chris Cariaso
Red Corner
VS
Louis Smolka
Blue Corner
+135
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-145
(59%)
44
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'3"
Height
5'9"
162.56 cm
Reach
172.72 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Chris CariasoL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Iliarde Santos · Oct 13W
vs Danny Martinez · Feb 14L
SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Sep 14L
vs Henry Cejudo · Mar 15L
vs Sergio Pettis · Oct 15Louis SmolkaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Ryan MacDonald · Sep 19L
SUBvs Casey Kenney · May 20W
KOvs Jose Quinonez · Dec 20L
KOvs Vince Morales · Dec 21L
KOvs Davey Grant · May 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Chris CariasoMetricLouis Smolka
3.35
Strikes / min
4.67
2.23
Strikes absorbed / min
4.11
61%
Strike defense
53%
1.11
TDs / 15 min
1.69
57%
Takedown defense
32%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.12evenly matched on net striking+0.56
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Chris CariasoLouis Smolka
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Chris Cariaso(10 fights)Louis Smolka(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+22.1-22.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-17.017.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+3.0-3.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Chris Cariaso
StanceSouthpaw
Height63.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights13
Louis Smolka
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights17