Lightweight
3 Rounds
Chris Duncan won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 18, 2023·London, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Style matchupChris Duncan: WrestlervsOmar Morales: Striker
Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.
Model Prediction: Chris Duncan wins(72.3%)
Actual result: Chris Duncan wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Chris Duncan enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Tale of the Tape
Chris Duncan
Red Corner
VS
Omar Morales
Blue Corner
-110
(52%)
Vegas Odds
-106
(51%)
33
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'11"
180.34 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Chris DuncanW4 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Manuel Torres · Feb 24W
SUBvs Bolaji Oki · Sep 24W
SUBvs Jordan Vucenic · Mar 25W
vs Mateusz Rebecki · Aug 25W
SUBvs Terrance McKinney · Dec 25Omar MoralesL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Gabriel Benitez · May 20L
vs Giga Chikadze · Oct 20W
vs Shane Young · Mar 21L
SUBvs Jonathan Pearce · Sep 21L
KOvs Uros Medic · May 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Chris DuncanMetricOmar Morales
4.83
Strikes / min
3.42
4.57
Strikes absorbed / min
3.18
50%
Strike defense
58%
2.92
TDs / 15 min
0.46
55%
Takedown defense
63%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.26evenly matched on net striking+0.24
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Chris DuncanOmar Morales
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Chris Duncan(7 fights)Omar Morales(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+14.9-14.9
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+49.6-49.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+49.6-49.6
Chris Duncan
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights8
Omar Morales
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights6