Lightweight
3 Rounds
Chris Duncan won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, July 22, 2023·London, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Style matchupChris Duncan: WrestlervsYanal Ashmouz: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Yanal Ashmouz wins(54.3%)
Actual result: Chris Duncan wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Chris Duncan enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Tale of the Tape
Chris Duncan
Red Corner
VS
Yanal Ashmouz
Blue Corner
-140
(58%)
Vegas Odds
+120
(45%)
33
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'9"
180.34 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Chris DuncanW4 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Manuel Torres · Feb 24W
SUBvs Bolaji Oki · Sep 24W
SUBvs Jordan Vucenic · Mar 25W
vs Mateusz Rebecki · Aug 25W
SUBvs Terrance McKinney · Dec 25Yanal Ashmouz
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Sam Patterson · Mar 23W
vs Trevor Peek · Sep 24L
vs Quillan Salkilld · Jun 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Chris DuncanMetricYanal Ashmouz
4.83
Strikes / min
2.88
4.57
Strikes absorbed / min
4.78
50%
Strike defense
50%
2.92
TDs / 15 min
3.24
55%
Takedown defense
64%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.26Δ 2.16 — meaningful gap-1.90
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Chris DuncanYanal Ashmouz
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Chris Duncan(7 fights)Yanal Ashmouz(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-0.80.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Chris Duncan
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights8
Yanal Ashmouz
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights4