Featherweight
3 Rounds
Chris Gutierrez won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, April 26, 2025·Kansas City, Missouri, USA, USA
Style matchupChris Gutierrez: Elusive strikervsJohn Castaneda: Pressure fighter
The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.
Model Prediction: Chris Gutierrez wins(50.1%)
Actual result: Chris Gutierrez wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors John Castaneda (52.9%).
- John Castaneda has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Chris Gutierrez
Red Corner
VS
John Castaneda
Blue Corner
-148
(60%)
Vegas Odds
+126
(44%)
35
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'9"
Height
5'6"
170.18 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Chris Gutierrez
oldest →latest
L
vs Pedro Munhoz · Apr 23W
vs Alatengheili · Oct 23L
vs Song Yadong · Dec 23W
vs Quang Le · Aug 24L
vs Farid Basharat · Oct 25John Castaneda
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Miles Johns · Feb 22L
KOvs Daniel Santos · Oct 22W
vs Muin Gafurov · Jun 23W
vs Kyung Ho Kang · Nov 23L
vs Daniel Marcos · Jun 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Chris GutierrezMetricJohn Castaneda
4.40
Strikes / min
4.95
2.65
Strikes absorbed / min
5.07
63%
Strike defense
54%
0.30
TDs / 15 min
1.49
67%
Takedown defense
75%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.75Δ 1.87 — meaningful gap-0.12
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Chris GutierrezJohn Castaneda
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Chris Gutierrez(10 fights)John Castaneda(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+64.7-64.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-63.063.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Chris Gutierrez
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights14
John Castaneda
StanceSwitch
Height66.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights8