Welterweight
3 Rounds
Chris Lytle won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, July 3, 2010·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupChris Lytle: Well-roundedvsMatt Brown: Submission grappler
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Chris Lytle wins(65.1%)
Actual result: Chris Lytle wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Chris Lytle threatens submissions; Matt Brown has lost 42% of fights by sub.
- Matt Brown has a 18cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Chris Lytle
Red Corner
VS
Matt Brown
Blue Corner
-180
(64%)
Vegas Odds
+168
(37%)
51
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'0"
172.72 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Chris Lytle
oldest →latest
W
vs Matt Serra · Sep 10L
vs Brian Ebersole · Feb 11W
SUBvs Dan Hardy · Aug 11Matt Brown
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20L
vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21W
KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21L
vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22W
KOvs Court McGee · May 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Chris LytleMetricMatt Brown
3.76
Strikes / min
3.76
3.03
Strikes absorbed / min
2.92
58%
Strike defense
55%
0.70
TDs / 15 min
1.68
55%
Takedown defense
63%
2.40
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.73evenly matched on net striking+0.84
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Chris LytleMatt Brown
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Chris Lytle(4 fights)Matt Brown(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+18.5-18.5
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+47.8-47.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+49.5-49.5
Chris Lytle
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights4
Matt Brown
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights25