Lightweight
3 Rounds
Chris Padilla won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, November 8, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupChris Padilla: Pressure fightervsIsmael Bonfim: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Chris Padilla wins(62.6%)
Actual result: Chris Padilla wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Chris Padilla enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Chris Padilla is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Ismael Bonfim has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Ismael Bonfim has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Chris Padilla
Red Corner
VS
Ismael Bonfim
Blue Corner
-118
(54%)
Vegas Odds
+100
(50%)
30
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'8"
187.96 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Chris PadillaW3 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs James Llontop · Apr 24W
KOvs Rongzhu · Sep 24W
vs Jai Herbert · Mar 25Ismael Bonfim
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Terrance McKinney · Jan 23L
SUBvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jul 23W
vs Vinc Pichel · May 24L
KOvs Nazim Sadykhov · Feb 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Chris PadillaMetricIsmael Bonfim
6.19
Strikes / min
5.51
4.88
Strikes absorbed / min
3.71
49%
Strike defense
65%
1.13
TDs / 15 min
1.06
80%
Takedown defense
76%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.31evenly matched on net striking+1.80
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Chris PadillaIsmael Bonfim
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Chris Padilla(4 fights)Ismael Bonfim(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+45.3-45.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-35.035.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.3-1.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Chris Padilla
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights4
Ismael Bonfim
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights5