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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Tomorrow
Elo1548
Elo1510
Nasrat Haqparast

Chris PadillavsNasrat HaqparastUFC Prediction

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · Saturday, August 22, 2026Sacramento, USA

Fight begins in
Style matchupChris Padilla: Pressure fightervsNasrat Haqparast: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

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Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Nasrat Haqparast has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Chris Padilla
Red Corner
VS
Nasrat Haqparast
Blue Corner
-109
(52%)
Vegas Odds
-112
(53%)
1548
Elo
1510
30
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'10"
187.96 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris Padilla
oldest →
W
SUBvs James Llontop · Apr 24
W
KOvs Rongzhu · Sep 24
W
vs Jai Herbert · Mar 25
W
KOvs Ismael Bonfim · Nov 25
D
DECvs MarQuel Mederos · Apr 26
latest
Nasrat Haqparast
oldest →
W
vs Landon Quinones · Sep 23
W
KOvs Jamie Mullarkey · Dec 23
W
vs Jared Gordon · Jun 24
W
vs Esteban Ribovics · Mar 25
L
KOvs Quillan Salkilld · Oct 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris PadillaMetricNasrat Haqparast
6.19
Strikes / min
6.36
4.88
Strikes absorbed / min
6.00
49%
Strike defense
63%
1.13
TDs / 15 min
0.34
80%
Takedown defense
86%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.31evenly matched on net striking+0.36
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801500152015401560← oldermost recent →
Chris Padilla(5 fights)Nasrat Haqparast(10 fights)

Method Projection

Matchup projection based on both fighters' finish patterns and vulnerabilities. These three projected methods total 100%. Most likely: KO / TKO.

KO / TKO71%

Historical win share: Chris Padilla earned 50% of wins by KO/TKO.

Submission16%

Historical win share: Chris Padilla earned 25% of wins by submission.

Decision13%

Both fighters frequently end fights early.

Chris Padilla

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights4

Nasrat Haqparast

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights15