Lightweight
3 Rounds
Chris Wade won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Sunday, January 17, 2016·Boston, Massachusetts, USA, USA
Style matchupChris Wade: WrestlervsMehdi Baghdad: Striker
Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.
Model Prediction: Chris Wade wins(79.2%)
Actual result: Chris Wade wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Chris Wade threatens submissions; Mehdi Baghdad has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Chris Wade has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
- Mehdi Baghdad has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Chris Wade
Red Corner
VS
Mehdi Baghdad
Blue Corner
-470
(82%)
Vegas Odds
+375
(21%)
38
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
6'1"
177.8 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Chris Wade
oldest →latest
W
vs Zhang Lipeng · Jan 15W
vs Christos Giagos · Jun 15L
vs Rustam Khabilov · May 16L
vs Islam Makhachev · Sep 16W
vs Frankie Perez · Jul 17Mehdi Baghdad
oldest →latest
L
vs John Makdessi · Jul 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Chris WadeMetricMehdi Baghdad
1.70
Strikes / min
3.13
1.75
Strikes absorbed / min
4.56
51%
Strike defense
46%
2.60
TDs / 15 min
0.00
55%
Takedown defense
33%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.05Δ 1.38 — meaningful gap-1.43
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Chris WadeMehdi Baghdad
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Chris Wade(7 fights)Mehdi Baghdad(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+54.5-54.5
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.449.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.549.5
Chris Wade
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights7
Mehdi Baghdad
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach—
Fights2