Middleweight
3 Rounds
Gegard Mousasi won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, April 8, 2017·Buffalo, New York, USA, USA
Style matchupChris Weidman: WrestlervsGegard Mousasi: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Chris Weidman wins(50.2%)
Actual result: Gegard Mousasi wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Gegard Mousasi enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Gegard Mousasi is a KO finisher (56% of wins). Chris Weidman has lost 88% of fights by KO.
- Gegard Mousasi has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Chris Weidman
Red Corner
VS
Gegard Mousasi
Blue Corner
-105
(51%)
Vegas Odds
-115
(53%)
41
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'2"
198.12 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Chris Weidman
oldest →latest
W
vs Omari Akhmedov · Aug 20L
KOvs Uriah Hall · Apr 21L
vs Brad Tavares · Aug 23W
vs Bruno Silva · Mar 24L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Dec 24Gegard MousasiW4 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Uriah Hall · Sep 15W
vs Thales Leites · Feb 16W
KOvs Thiago Santos · Jul 16W
KOvs Vitor Belfort · Oct 16W
KOvs Uriah Hall · Nov 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Chris WeidmanMetricGegard Mousasi
3.11
Strikes / min
3.75
3.37
Strikes absorbed / min
1.21
51%
Strike defense
68%
3.27
TDs / 15 min
1.59
72%
Takedown defense
59%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.26Δ 2.80 — meaningful gap+2.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Chris WeidmanGegard Mousasi
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Chris Weidman(10 fights)Gegard Mousasi(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+18.2-18.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+7.0-7.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.31.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Chris Weidman
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights20
Gegard Mousasi
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights12