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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Jacare Souza won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1495

Elo1399

Chris WeidmanvsJacare SouzaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · Saturday, November 3, 2018New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Jacare Souza won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:46

Style matchupChris Weidman: WrestlervsJacare Souza: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Chris Weidman wins(60.7%)

Actual result: Jacare Souza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Weidman at -160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jacare Souza enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Jacare Souza has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Chris Weidman has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Chris Weidman has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Chris Weidman

Red Corner

Jacare Souza

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1495

Elo

1399

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'1"

198.12 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris Weidman

oldest →

DECvs Omari Akhmedov · Aug 20

KOvs Uriah Hall · Apr 21

vs Brad Tavares · Aug 23

vs Bruno Silva · Mar 24

KOvs Eryk Anders · Dec 24

latest

Jacare SouzaL5 streak

oldest →

vs Kelvin Gastelum · May 18

vs Jack Hermansson · Apr 19

vs Jan Blachowicz · Nov 19

KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 20

SUBvs Andre Muniz · May 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris WeidmanMetricJacare Souza

3.11

Strikes / min

2.53

3.37

Strikes absorbed / min

2.83

51%

Strike defense

62%

3.27

TDs / 15 min

2.57

72%

Takedown defense

57%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.26evenly matched on net striking-0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris WeidmanJacare Souza

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Weidman(10 fights)Jacare Souza(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +95.7|Blue -95.7

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +294.0|Blue -294.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris WeidmanTargetJacare Souza

By target zone

30% acc · 76%

Head

47% acc · 57%

70% acc · 21%

Body

77% acc · 32%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

67% acc · 11%

By position

34% acc · 90%

Distance

52% acc · 77%

64% acc · 10%

Clinch

71% acc · 20%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Weidman rounds

even

Jacare Souza rounds

Round 1Chris Weidman edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns1

Control0:43

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jacare Souza edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

68 / 193

Sig Strikes

74 / 132

34.7%

Sig Str %

55%

76 / 201

Total Strikes

100 / 158

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:43

Ctrl Time

0:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jacare Souza	14 / 30	15 / 31	0 / 0
1	Chris Weidman	23 / 68	23 / 68	0 / 0
2	Jacare Souza	31 / 59	50 / 78	0 / 0
2	Chris Weidman	26 / 64	34 / 72	1 / 1
3	Jacare Souza	29 / 43	35 / 49	0 / 0
3	Chris Weidman	19 / 61	19 / 61	0 / 0

Chris Weidman

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights20

Jacare Souza

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights17