Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kelvin Gastelum (53.5%).
- Chris Weidman has a 18cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Chris Weidman
oldest →W
DECvs Omari Akhmedov · Aug 20L
KOvs Uriah Hall · Apr 21L
vs Brad Tavares · Aug 23L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Dec 24 Kelvin Gastelum
oldest →L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23W
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24W
vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25L
SUBvs Vicente Luque · Apr 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Chris WeidmanMetricKelvin Gastelum
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.26evenly matched on net striking+0.13
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Chris WeidmanKelvin Gastelum
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Chris Weidman(10 fights)Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +2.9|Blue -2.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -119.0|Blue +119.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Chris WeidmanTargetKelvin Gastelum
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Kelvin Gastelum edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns2
Control1:43
Knockdowns0
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:07Control
1Knockdowns
Round 2Chris Weidman edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns3
Control3:47
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Chris Weidman edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns2
Control2:05
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
