Middleweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Chris Weidman won · U-DEC R5
UFC Event·Saturday, July 5, 2014·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupChris Weidman: WrestlervsLyoto Machida: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Chris Weidman wins(59.3%)
Actual result: Chris Weidman wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Lyoto Machida is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Chris Weidman has lost 88% of fights by KO.
- Lyoto Machida has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Lyoto Machida (53.5%).
- Chris Weidman has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Chris Weidman
Red Corner
VS
Lyoto Machida
Blue Corner
-185
(65%)
Vegas Odds
+170
(37%)
41
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'2"
Height
6'1"
198.12 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Chris Weidman
oldest →latest
W
vs Omari Akhmedov · Aug 20L
KOvs Uriah Hall · Apr 21L
vs Brad Tavares · Aug 23W
vs Bruno Silva · Mar 24L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Dec 24Lyoto MachidaW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Luke Rockhold · Apr 15L
KOvs Yoel Romero · Jun 15L
KOvs Derek Brunson · Oct 17W
vs Eryk Anders · Feb 18W
KOvs Vitor Belfort · May 18Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Chris WeidmanMetricLyoto Machida
3.11
Strikes / min
2.59
3.37
Strikes absorbed / min
1.57
51%
Strike defense
61%
3.27
TDs / 15 min
1.21
72%
Takedown defense
75%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.26Δ 1.28 — meaningful gap+1.02
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Chris WeidmanLyoto Machida
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Chris Weidman(10 fights)Lyoto Machida(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+88.2-88.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+49.0-49.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Chris Weidman
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights20
Lyoto Machida
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights16