Middleweight
3 Rounds
Christian Leroy Duncan won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, November 18, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupChristian Leroy Duncan: StrikervsDenis Tiuliulin: Well-rounded
The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.
Model Prediction: Christian Leroy Duncan wins(68.6%)
Actual result: Christian Leroy Duncan wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Christian Leroy Duncan enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Denis Tiuliulin enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Christian Leroy Duncan has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Christian Leroy Duncan (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Christian Leroy Duncan
Red Corner
VS
Denis Tiuliulin
Blue Corner
-720
(88%)
Vegas Odds
+450
(18%)
30
Age
38
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'1"
200.66 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Christian Leroy DuncanW4 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Gregory Rodrigues · Jul 24W
vs Andrey Pulyaev · Mar 25W
KOvs Eryk Anders · Aug 25W
KOvs Marco Tulio · Nov 25W
vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 26Denis TiuliulinL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Aliaskhab Khizriev · Mar 22W
KOvs Jamie Pickett · Sep 22L
SUBvs JunYong Park · Feb 23L
KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Aug 23L
vs Sedriques Dumas · Aug 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Christian Leroy DuncanMetricDenis Tiuliulin
4.43
Strikes / min
3.61
2.59
Strikes absorbed / min
5.23
52%
Strike defense
38%
0.33
TDs / 15 min
0.96
63%
Takedown defense
72%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.84Δ 3.46 — meaningful gap-1.62
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Christian Leroy DuncanDenis Tiuliulin
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Christian Leroy Duncan(9 fights)Denis Tiuliulin(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+33.0-33.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+63.0-63.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Christian Leroy Duncan
StanceSwitch
Height74.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights9
Denis Tiuliulin
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights6