Middleweight
3 Rounds
Christian Leroy Duncan won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, November 8, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupChristian Leroy Duncan: StrikervsMarco Tulio: Elusive striker
Two strikers, different gameplans. Volume vs precision — judges typically favor activity.
Model Prediction: Marco Tulio wins(51.5%)
Actual result: Christian Leroy Duncan wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Christian Leroy Duncan enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Christian Leroy Duncan has 63pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Christian Leroy Duncan (52.9%).
- Christian Leroy Duncan has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Christian Leroy Duncan
Red Corner
VS
Marco Tulio
Blue Corner
+140
(42%)
Vegas Odds
-166
(62%)
30
Age
31
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'0"
200.66 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Christian Leroy DuncanW3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Claudio Ribeiro · Mar 24L
vs Gregory Rodrigues · Jul 24W
vs Andrey Pulyaev · Mar 25W
KOvs Eryk Anders · Aug 25W
vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 26Marco TulioW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Ihor Potieria · Jan 25W
KOvs Tresean Gore · Apr 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Christian Leroy DuncanMetricMarco Tulio
4.43
Strikes / min
6.02
2.59
Strikes absorbed / min
2.97
52%
Strike defense
56%
0.33
TDs / 15 min
1.05
63%
Takedown defense
0%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.84Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap+3.05
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Christian Leroy DuncanMarco Tulio
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Christian Leroy Duncan(9 fights)Marco Tulio(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+17.8-17.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-119.0119.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Christian Leroy Duncan
StanceSwitch
Height74.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights9
Marco Tulio
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights3