Featherweight
3 Rounds
Melquizael Costa won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 29, 2025·Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico, Mexico
Style matchupChristian Rodriguez: Submission grapplervsMelquizael Costa: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Christian Rodriguez wins(68.2%)
Actual result: Melquizael Costa wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Melquizael Costa enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Melquizael Costa (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Christian Rodriguez
Red Corner
VS
Melquizael Costa
Blue Corner
-200
(67%)
Vegas Odds
+168
(37%)
28
Age
29
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'7"
Height
5'10"
180.34 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Christian Rodriguez
oldest →latest
W
vs Cameron Saaiman · Oct 23W
vs Isaac Dulgarian · Mar 24L
SUBvs Julian Erosa · Jul 24W
vs Austin Bashi · Jan 25L
vs Andre Fili · Aug 25Melquizael CostaW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke · Jun 24W
SUBvs Andre Fili · Feb 25W
vs Julian Erosa · May 25W
KOvs Morgan Charriere · Dec 25W
KOvs Dan Ige · Feb 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Christian RodriguezMetricMelquizael Costa
3.85
Strikes / min
4.38
2.85
Strikes absorbed / min
2.97
56%
Strike defense
54%
1.75
TDs / 15 min
2.00
67%
Takedown defense
58%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.00evenly matched on net striking+1.41
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Christian RodriguezMelquizael Costa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Christian Rodriguez(9 fights)Melquizael Costa(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+29.8-29.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+42.0-42.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Christian Rodriguez
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights9
Melquizael Costa
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights9