Flyweight
3 Rounds
Asu Almabayev won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 9, 2024·Miami, Florida, USA, USA
Style matchupCJ Vergara: Pressure fightervsAsu Almabayev: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: CJ Vergara wins(54.2%)
Actual result: Asu Almabayev wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- CJ Vergara has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
CJ Vergara
Red Corner
VS
Asu Almabayev
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
34
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'4"
172.72 cm
Reach
165.1 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
CJ VergaraL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Tatsuro Taira · Oct 22W
KOvs Daniel Lacerda · Mar 23W
vs Vinicius Salvador · Jul 23L
KOvs Ramazan Temirov · Oct 24L
SUBvs Edgar Chairez · Mar 25Asu AlmabayevW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Jose Johnson · Jun 24W
vs Matheus Nicolau · Oct 24L
KOvs Manel Kape · Mar 25W
vs Jose Ochoa · Jul 25W
SUBvs Alex Perez · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
CJ VergaraMetricAsu Almabayev
5.02
Strikes / min
2.31
4.69
Strikes absorbed / min
1.99
53%
Strike defense
53%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
4.46
60%
Takedown defense
44%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
1.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.33evenly matched on net striking+0.32
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
CJ VergaraAsu Almabayev
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
CJ Vergara(8 fights)Asu Almabayev(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-2.12.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+7.0-7.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-1.31.3
CJ Vergara
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights8
Asu Almabayev
StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights7