Lightweight
3 Rounds
Charles Oliveira won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, June 9, 2018·Chicago, Illinois, USA, USA
Style matchupClay Guida: WrestlervsCharles Oliveira: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Clay Guida wins(54.8%)
Actual result: Charles Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Charles Oliveira threatens submissions; Clay Guida has lost 43% of fights by sub.
- Clay Guida has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Charles Oliveira has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Clay Guida
Red Corner
VS
Charles Oliveira
Blue Corner
+120
(45%)
Vegas Odds
-140
(58%)
44
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Clay GuidaL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22W
vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22L
vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23L
vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23L
SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24Charles OliveiraW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24W
vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25W
SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25W
vs Max Holloway · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Clay GuidaMetricCharles Oliveira
2.63
Strikes / min
3.23
3.00
Strikes absorbed / min
3.05
61%
Strike defense
48%
3.10
TDs / 15 min
2.29
66%
Takedown defense
54%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
2.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.37evenly matched on net striking+0.18
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Clay GuidaCharles Oliveira
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Clay Guida(10 fights)Charles Oliveira(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+17.4-17.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+21.0-21.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Clay Guida
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights27
Charles Oliveira
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights36