Lightweight
3 Rounds
Chase Hooper won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, December 7, 2024·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupClay Guida: WrestlervsChase Hooper: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Chase Hooper wins(61.3%)
Actual result: Chase Hooper wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Chase Hooper threatens submissions; Clay Guida has lost 43% of fights by sub.
- Clay Guida has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Chase Hooper (53.5%).
- Chase Hooper has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Clay Guida
Red Corner
VS
Chase Hooper
Blue Corner
+700
(13%)
Vegas Odds
-1100
(92%)
44
Age
26
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'7"
Height
6'1"
177.8 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Clay GuidaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Leonardo Santos · Dec 21L
SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22W
vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22L
vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23L
vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23Chase HooperL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Jordan Leavitt · Nov 23W
SUBvs Viacheslav Borshchev · May 24W
vs Jim Miller · Apr 25L
KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Aug 25L
KOvs Lance Gibson Jr. · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Clay GuidaMetricChase Hooper
2.63
Strikes / min
4.50
3.00
Strikes absorbed / min
3.02
61%
Strike defense
39%
3.10
TDs / 15 min
2.43
66%
Takedown defense
55%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
2.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.37Δ 1.85 — meaningful gap+1.48
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Clay GuidaChase Hooper
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Clay Guida(10 fights)Chase Hooper(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-58.058.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+161.0-161.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.31.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.9-0.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Clay Guida
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights27
Chase Hooper
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights13