Lightweight
3 Rounds
Claudio Puelles won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, April 23, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupClay Guida: WrestlervsClaudio Puelles: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Claudio Puelles wins(66.1%)
Actual result: Claudio Puelles wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Claudio Puelles enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Claudio Puelles threatens submissions; Clay Guida has lost 43% of fights by sub.
- Clay Guida has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Claudio Puelles (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Clay Guida
Red Corner
VS
Claudio Puelles
Blue Corner
+105
(49%)
Vegas Odds
-125
(56%)
44
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'7"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Clay GuidaL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Leonardo Santos · Dec 21W
vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22L
vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23L
vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23L
SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24Claudio PuellesL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Jordan Leavitt · Jun 21W
SUBvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Dec 21L
KOvs Dan Hooker · Nov 22L
vs Fares Ziam · Feb 24L
vs Joaquim Silva · Sep 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Clay GuidaMetricClaudio Puelles
2.63
Strikes / min
1.54
3.00
Strikes absorbed / min
2.62
61%
Strike defense
48%
3.10
TDs / 15 min
3.29
66%
Takedown defense
60%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.37evenly matched on net striking-1.08
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Clay GuidaClaudio Puelles
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Clay Guida(10 fights)Claudio Puelles(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-11.211.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.9-0.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Clay Guida
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights27
Claudio Puelles
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights8