Lightweight
3 Rounds
Clay Guida won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Sunday, June 25, 2017·Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA, USA
Style matchupClay Guida: WrestlervsErik Koch: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Clay Guida wins(50.3%)
Actual result: Clay Guida wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Clay Guida has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Erik Koch has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Erik Koch (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Clay Guida
Red Corner
VS
Erik Koch
Blue Corner
+290
(26%)
Vegas Odds
-350
(78%)
44
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'7"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Clay GuidaL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22W
vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22L
vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23L
vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23L
SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24Erik Koch
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Rafaello Oliveira · Feb 14L
KOvs Daron Cruickshank · May 14W
SUBvs Shane Campbell · May 16L
vs Bobby Green · Jan 18W
vs Kyle Stewart · Jul 19Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Clay GuidaMetricErik Koch
2.63
Strikes / min
2.33
3.00
Strikes absorbed / min
2.82
61%
Strike defense
47%
3.10
TDs / 15 min
1.02
66%
Takedown defense
81%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.37evenly matched on net striking-0.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Clay GuidaErik Koch
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Clay Guida(10 fights)Erik Koch(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-4.84.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-6.06.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.21.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
Clay Guida
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights27
Erik Koch
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights10