Featherweight
3 Rounds
Clay Guida won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, January 26, 2013·Chicago, Illinois, USA, USA
Style matchupClay Guida: WrestlervsHatsu Hioki: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Clay Guida wins(52.4%)
Actual result: Clay Guida wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tale of the Tape
Clay Guida
Red Corner
VS
Hatsu Hioki
Blue Corner
-210
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+190
(34%)
44
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'11"
177.8 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Clay GuidaL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22W
vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22L
vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23L
vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23L
SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24Hatsu HiokiL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Ricardo Lamas · Jun 12L
vs Darren Elkins · Aug 13W
vs Ivan Menjivar · Mar 14L
SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 14L
KOvs Dan Hooker · May 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Clay GuidaMetricHatsu Hioki
2.63
Strikes / min
2.42
3.00
Strikes absorbed / min
2.12
61%
Strike defense
65%
3.10
TDs / 15 min
2.55
66%
Takedown defense
54%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.37evenly matched on net striking+0.30
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Clay GuidaHatsu Hioki
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Clay Guida(10 fights)Hatsu Hioki(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+12.2-12.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Clay Guida
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights27
Hatsu Hioki
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8