Lightweight
3 Rounds
Clay Guida won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, December 4, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupClay Guida: WrestlervsLeonardo Santos: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Clay Guida wins(60.8%)
Actual result: Clay Guida wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Leonardo Santos has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Leonardo Santos has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Clay Guida
Red Corner
VS
Leonardo Santos
Blue Corner
+180
(36%)
Vegas Odds
-220
(69%)
44
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
6'0"
177.8 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Clay GuidaL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22W
vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22L
vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23L
vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23L
SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24Leonardo SantosL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Adriano Martins · Oct 16W
KOvs Stevie Ray · Jun 19W
vs Roman Bogatov · Jul 20L
KOvs Grant Dawson · Mar 21L
vs Jared Gordon · Aug 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Clay GuidaMetricLeonardo Santos
2.63
Strikes / min
2.82
3.00
Strikes absorbed / min
3.40
61%
Strike defense
54%
3.10
TDs / 15 min
0.88
66%
Takedown defense
86%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.37evenly matched on net striking-0.58
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Clay GuidaLeonardo Santos
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Clay Guida(10 fights)Leonardo Santos(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-91.091.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-154.0154.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Clay Guida
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights27
Leonardo Santos
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights10