Lightweight
3 Rounds
Mark Madsen won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, August 21, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupClay Guida: WrestlervsMark Madsen: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Mark Madsen wins(63.5%)
Actual result: Mark Madsen wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tale of the Tape
Clay Guida
Red Corner
VS
Mark Madsen
Blue Corner
+150
(40%)
Vegas Odds
-170
(63%)
44
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'8"
177.8 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Clay GuidaL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22W
vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22L
vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23L
vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23L
SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24Mark MadsenL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Danilo Belluardo · Sep 19W
vs Austin Hubbard · Mar 20W
vs Vinc Pichel · Apr 22L
SUBvs Grant Dawson · Nov 22L
KOvs Jared Gordon · Nov 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Clay GuidaMetricMark Madsen
2.63
Strikes / min
3.56
3.00
Strikes absorbed / min
3.97
61%
Strike defense
52%
3.10
TDs / 15 min
2.86
66%
Takedown defense
62%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.37evenly matched on net striking-0.41
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Clay GuidaMark Madsen
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Clay Guida(10 fights)Mark Madsen(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-13.613.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-336.0336.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
Clay Guida
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights27
Mark Madsen
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights6