Lightweight
3 Rounds
Rafa Garcia won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, April 15, 2023·Kansas City, Missouri, USA, USA
Style matchupClay Guida: WrestlervsRafa Garcia: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Rafa Garcia wins(64.1%)
Actual result: Rafa Garcia wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Tale of the Tape
Clay Guida
Red Corner
VS
Rafa Garcia
Blue Corner
+235
(30%)
Vegas Odds
-290
(74%)
44
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'7"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Clay GuidaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Leonardo Santos · Dec 21L
SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22W
vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22L
vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23L
SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24Rafa GarciaW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Drakkar Klose · Jul 22W
vs Maheshate · Dec 22L
KOvs Grant Dawson · Oct 24W
vs Vinc Pichel · Mar 25W
KOvs Jared Gordon · Sep 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Clay GuidaMetricRafa Garcia
2.63
Strikes / min
4.28
3.00
Strikes absorbed / min
4.42
61%
Strike defense
61%
3.10
TDs / 15 min
3.22
66%
Takedown defense
77%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.37evenly matched on net striking-0.14
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Clay GuidaRafa Garcia
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Clay Guida(10 fights)Rafa Garcia(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+21.4-21.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+14.0-14.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Clay Guida
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights27
Rafa Garcia
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10