Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Clay Guida has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Clay GuidaL3 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22W
vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22L
vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23L
SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24 Tatsuya KawajiriL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Sean Soriano · Jan 14W
vs Dennis Siver · Jun 15W
vs Jason Knight · Dec 15L
vs Dennis Bermudez · Feb 16 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Clay GuidaMetricTatsuya Kawajiri
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.37evenly matched on net striking+0.03
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Clay GuidaTatsuya Kawajiri
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Clay Guida(10 fights)Tatsuya Kawajiri(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +133.5|Blue -133.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.9|Blue -1.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +126.0|Blue -126.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Clay GuidaTargetTatsuya Kawajiri
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Clay Guida edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns1
Control3:18
Knockdowns1
4Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:06Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Clay Guida edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns1
Control4:00
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
Round 3Clay Guida edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns1
Control1:41
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:36Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
