Featherweight
3 Rounds
Thiago Tavares won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, November 7, 2015·Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupClay Guida: WrestlervsThiago Tavares: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Clay Guida wins(55.3%)
Actual result: Thiago Tavares wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Thiago Tavares threatens submissions; Clay Guida has lost 43% of fights by sub.
Tale of the Tape
Clay Guida
Red Corner
VS
Thiago Tavares
Blue Corner
-170
(63%)
Vegas Odds
+160
(38%)
44
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'7"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Clay GuidaL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22W
vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22L
vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23L
vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23L
SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24Thiago TavaresL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Jan 13W
SUBvs Justin Salas · Nov 13W
SUBvs Robert Peralta · Aug 14L
KOvs Brian Ortega · Jun 15L
KOvs Dooho Choi · Jul 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Clay GuidaMetricThiago Tavares
2.63
Strikes / min
2.00
3.00
Strikes absorbed / min
2.31
61%
Strike defense
62%
3.10
TDs / 15 min
3.83
66%
Takedown defense
62%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
1.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.37evenly matched on net striking-0.31
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Clay GuidaThiago Tavares
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Clay Guida(10 fights)Thiago Tavares(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+11.8-11.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+63.0-63.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Clay Guida
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights27
Thiago Tavares
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10