Welterweight
3 Rounds
Seth Baczynski won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, September 17, 2011·New Orleans, Louisiana, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Clay Harvison wins(62.3%)
Actual result: Seth Baczynski wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Seth Baczynski enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Seth Baczynski threatens submissions; Clay Harvison has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Clay Harvison has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Clay Harvison
Red Corner
VS
Seth Baczynski
Blue Corner
+140
(42%)
Vegas Odds
-150
(60%)
45
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'3"
187.96 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Clay Harvison
oldest →latest
W
vs Justin Edwards · Jun 11L
KOvs DaMarques Johnson · Nov 11Seth BaczynskiL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Brian Melancon · Jul 13W
vs Neil Magny · Nov 13L
vs Thiago Alves · Apr 14L
KOvs Alan Jouban · Aug 14L
KOvs Leon Edwards · Apr 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Clay HarvisonMetricSeth Baczynski
3.29
Strikes / min
3.08
3.91
Strikes absorbed / min
3.14
58%
Strike defense
51%
0.66
TDs / 15 min
0.89
68%
Takedown defense
48%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.62evenly matched on net striking-0.06
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Clay HarvisonSeth Baczynski
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Clay Harvison(3 fights)Seth Baczynski(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+37.0-37.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-350.0350.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+2.0-2.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Clay Harvison
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights3
Seth Baczynski
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights11