Flyweight
3 Rounds
Clayton Carpenter won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, February 18, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupClayton Carpenter: Submission grapplervsJuancamilo Ronderos: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Clayton Carpenter wins(80.4%)
Actual result: Clayton Carpenter wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Clayton Carpenter threatens submissions; Juancamilo Ronderos has lost 100% of fights by sub.
- Juancamilo Ronderos has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Clayton Carpenter has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Juancamilo Ronderos (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Clayton Carpenter
Red Corner
VS
Juancamilo Ronderos
Blue Corner
-320
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+265
(27%)
29
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'6"
Height
5'3"
167.64 cm
Reach
162.56 cm
Recent Form
Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Clayton CarpenterL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Lucas Rocha · Oct 24L
vs Tagir Ulanbekov · Jan 25L
SUBvs Jafel Filho · Oct 25Juancamilo Ronderos
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs David Dvorak · May 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Clayton CarpenterMetricJuancamilo Ronderos
3.88
Strikes / min
2.18
4.47
Strikes absorbed / min
2.18
49%
Strike defense
63%
1.75
TDs / 15 min
2.72
50%
Takedown defense
0%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.59evenly matched on net striking0.00
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Clayton CarpenterJuancamilo Ronderos
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Clayton Carpenter(4 fights)Juancamilo Ronderos(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+14.6-14.6
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+49.6-49.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+50.0-50.0
Clayton Carpenter
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights4
Juancamilo Ronderos
StanceSouthpaw
Height63.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights2