Flyweight
3 Rounds
Clayton Carpenter won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, October 12, 2024·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupClayton Carpenter: Submission grapplervsLucas Rocha: Pressure fighter
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Clayton Carpenter wins(71.3%)
Actual result: Clayton Carpenter wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Lucas Rocha has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Clayton Carpenter
Red Corner
VS
Lucas Rocha
Blue Corner
-245
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+200
(33%)
29
Age
25
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'3"
167.64 cm
Reach
162.56 cm
Recent Form
Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Clayton CarpenterL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Juancamilo Ronderos · Feb 23L
vs Tagir Ulanbekov · Jan 25L
SUBvs Jafel Filho · Oct 25Lucas Rocha
oldest →latest
W
vs Stewart Nicoll · Oct 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Clayton CarpenterMetricLucas Rocha
3.88
Strikes / min
5.09
4.47
Strikes absorbed / min
3.67
49%
Strike defense
56%
1.75
TDs / 15 min
1.64
50%
Takedown defense
76%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.59Δ 2.01 — meaningful gap+1.42
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Clayton CarpenterLucas Rocha
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Clayton Carpenter(4 fights)Lucas Rocha(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+15.3-15.3
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.549.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.149.1
Clayton Carpenter
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights4
Lucas Rocha
StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights2